July 26th

News for the day:

Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC, $META

7/25 session: VAH 4608, POC 4596, VAL 4591

• A period excess

• 61.8%: 4597.50, 50%: 4594, 38.2%: 4590.75

• settlement and the last price at 4596 and 4604.50, respectively

• TPOC: 4599

• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.58

• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 51.4 and Bears 21.5, last updated 7/19 (quite a big jump in bulls) | https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf

• 4605 | EV 3

• 4575 | EV 2

4-day CVA: VAH 4588, POC 4580, VAL 4570

• 4558 | EV2

Merging 7/18 to 7/24: VAH 4594, POC 4578, VAL 4565

• A period excess

• Poor/unsecured high

• 4605 | EV 3

My pivot for today will be 4590.

Pre - Fomc Scenarios:

Scenario 1:

Above the pivot. I will target 4595 and 4600

Scenario 2:

Below the pivot. I will target 4585. But the risk-reward is not worth it. But fading the extremes back down to the pivot with 4585 as the destination may be more worthwhile.

Scenario 3

Fade 4585 back up toward the pivot with S1 targets.

Post FOMC Scenarios

Scenario 1:

Above the pivot. I will target the break of 4600 and 4605 | EV 3. The repair of the poor high left from 7/19, also targeting 4616 and 4625

Scenario 2:

Below the pivot. I will target 4580 down to 4570 and possibly the gap fill from 7/24 session 4568.75 - 4564

Which has a high EV breakdown at 4564 | EV 3. And if we are incredibly bearish down to 4558 | EV2. Which is the poor low from the 7/20 session.

But for the most part, I will stay within 4625 - 4570. It’s about a 55-point range.

Scenario 3

Fade 4585 back up toward the pivot with S1 targets.

As of 6:00 AM CST, the OVN session is trading quite far from settlement and the last price. We may correct toward the pivot and settlement at 4596 before the opening. If not, we will have an OVN gap

As always ty Jontron